(originally posted 8.29.13)
Once more the vaunted Obama “calculus” proves wanting and
this time dangerously so, as Syria's President slaughters his own people.
In
the past decade the US has had ample opportunity to prevent Syria's use
of gas weapons; especially on the Obama watch. The Obama position a
year ago was that the use of chemical
weapons by Syria’s President Assad was a “red line” the incursion of which the US would not tolerate
and threatened military reprisal in response
– since then according to British intelligence Assad has breached the line not just
once but 14 times !
“Hey Buddy, You better listen to us Assad – no -
no, don’t do it, don’t do it – damn, well, we
really mean it the next time!"
Middle East analysts have commented that when the United
States embarks on military action in the region, Israel in turn suffers – this time,
the Israeli newspaper Haaretz says, Netanyahu vows “forceful” retaliation if
Israel determines that Syria will attack or moves to attack the Jewish State –
though Israel has nukes “forceful” is not thought to mean their use, however,
other commentators say while the probability of their “use is low it is not
zero.”.
Reports from Iran’s news agency FARS said that unnamed Syrian
military sources have promised that if the West attacks Syria, Tel Aviv would
be targeted, “Israel will also be set on fire!”. What is also generally believed
is that Assad and Hezbollah have 100,000 rockets and missiles to rain down upon
Israel.
Israel has called up its reservists in preparation for war.
Israeli citizens have lined up at distribution centers to
receive gas masks.
Obama has used Turkey as a CIA operations base in which to
train and supply anti-Assad forces in Syria. Turkey expects retaliation from
Syria. Both have already exchanged fire earlier. Turkey’s shared border with
Syria extends 560 miles and shelters ½ million anti-Assad refugees. Reuters news
service reports that Turkey has mobilized specialized equipment and personnel
to deal with chemical attacks to its borders with Syria. A spokesman for Turkey’s
Disaster and Emergency Management Directorate said, "We have increased our
measures significantly since last week, to be prepared particularly in case of
a chemical attack,".
Iran has stepped forward for the first time, according to
the Wall Street Journal, with its own threat, "Any attack on Syria would
burn down Israel," Iranian news media reported Maj. Gen. Hassan
Firouzabadi, chief of staff of Iran's armed forces, as saying.
And then of course there are Syria’s other allies – Putin’s
Russia, and China.
Russian diplomats have continually warned against military
intervention by western powers throughout the crisis saying that the consequences
of not doing so would be “dire”. The Times of India reports that Russia has
dispatched some of its naval forces to the eastern Mediterranean to neutralize
the US Naval presence already there.
China has stepped up its warning against military action
saying the consequences would be “catastrophic”. The official Chinese news agency,
Xinhua, adds that the US and its allies were rushing to conclusions about who
may have used chemical weapons in Syria before UN inspectors had completed
their investigation. Both China and
Russia are expected to “veto” any UN Security Council measures against Syria.
UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon said the inspectors could
finish and leave as early as this Saturday, and implored “Let Peace have a
chance”.
In the background, meanwhile, Obama had his administration officials
puff up the prospects of US retaliation while he himself has remained
relatively silent.
On Saturday and Sunday, U.S. officials leaked plans to media
to fire cruise missiles at Syrian military installations as a warning to the
Syrian government not to use its chemical weapons stockpiles again.
"Damnit Assad --- We
really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really,
really, really, really, really, really mean it this time !!"
And on Sunday, Sen. Bob Corker, who was briefed by
administration officials twice over the weekend, said a U.S. "response is
imminent" in Syria. "I think we will respond in a surgical way,"
he said. On Monday, Secretary of State John Kerry appeared to lay groundwork
for a 3 day U.S. military incursion as early as today.
The architect of Obama’s planned military adventure,
HOWEVER, has grave misgivings about it all:
Chris Harmer, a senior naval
analyst at the Institute for the Study of War, says too much faith is being put into the
outcome of surgical strikes on Assad's forces with little discussion of what wider
goals such attacks are supposed to achieve.
"Tactical
actions in the absence of strategic objectives is usually pointless and often
counterproductive. I never intended my analysis of a cruise missile strike
option to be advocacy even though some people took it as that."
A polite way of saying
that the Obama Administration doesn’t know what the fuck it’s doing.
But that’s never
been an obstacle to Obama before – he’s always been content to make
wrong-headed political decisions when the circumstances required thoughtful,
comprehensive strategic ones.
"I made it
clear that this is a low cost option”, Harmer said, “but the broader issue is that low cost
options don't do any good unless they are tied to strategic priorities and
objectives." . He added, "Any ship officer can launch 30 or 40
Tomahawks. It's not difficult. The difficulty is explaining to strategic
planners how this advances U.S. interests."
"Punitive
action is the dumbest of all actions," he said. "The Assad regime has
shown an incredible capacity to endure pain and I don't think we have the
stomach to deploy enough punitive action that would serve as a deterrent."
He also doubted the
effectiveness of taking out Assad's chemical weapons capabilities. "If we
start picking off chemical weapons targets in Syria, the logical response is if
any weapons are left in the warehouses, he's going to start dispersing them
among his forces if he hasn't already," he continued. "So you're too
late to the fight."
Now in the face of opposition from America’s adversaries and
from criticism at home by moving without Congressional authority or the UN
support, which support Obama’s has previously said was essential in matters of
international security; he has spoken
out and said in essence “Hey, wait a minute, that’s all premature, no decision has been
reached as yet.”
It’s clear no one was speaking on any of this previously without
Obama’s stamp of approval. Wonder how Kerry and Corker feel about another
politically motivated reversal from Obama right about now and their credibility
?
If Obama decides to move ahead with military action there
are as yet other deficiencies in that Obama expects Syria’s Assad and his
allies will get the nuances of the message Obama wants to convey.
This is an attack to show my displeasure with you for having
ignored my threats not because I’m trying to topple you from power (even though
both of us know I really am trying to do that through proxies or why else would I be supporting
secretly from Turkey the CIA operations to arm and train the opposition forces
fighting against your regime ?).
"We are not focused on taking action to determine the
outcome of the civil war," said a senior Obama administration official.
"We intend to send a message to the world that this is not business as
usual."
In other words, "hey, these are just cruise missiles to
punish you, please don’t mistake them for cruise missiles to remove you from
power.".
Jay Carney, spokesman for Obama, has said there must be a
negotiated settlement with Assad to end Syria’s civil war; even though the
recent gas attack makes that more unobtainable.
So
…. Let me get this straight. According to the Obama
administration Assad and his government are barbaric. They have
committed a crime
against humanity by deploying gas weapons against their own people.
However, Assad must remain in power in order for the Obama
administration to negotiate a settlement to end Syria's civil conflict.
But THEN Assad must go. Assad will understand the nuances of the Obama
message in a military attack. And THEN Assad will enter into
negotiations in
which he will THEN surrender himself up to an international tribunal in
the
Hague to be tried as a war criminal. And because it was just a surgical
strike there will be no unmanageable repercussions anywhere. Is that
about it?
What I think will fly back to the White House in turn through
diplomatic channels, of course, will be something in Arabic that sounds a lot
like, …… Kiss My Ass !!!