Syrian Gas Attack Crisis ..... Obama's Foreign Policy Train Wreck

(originally posted 8.29.13)

Once more the vaunted Obama “calculus” proves wanting and this time dangerously so, as Syria's President slaughters his own people.

In the past decade the US has had ample opportunity to prevent Syria's use of gas weapons; especially on the Obama watch. The Obama position a year ago was that the use of chemical weapons by Syria’s President Assad was a “red line” the  incursion of which the US would not tolerate and threatened military reprisal  in response – since then according to British intelligence Assad has breached the line not just once but 14 times !

“Hey Buddy, You better listen to us Assad – no -  no, don’t do it, don’t do it – damn, well, we really mean it the next time!"

Middle East analysts have commented that when the United States embarks on military action in the region, Israel in turn suffers – this time, the Israeli newspaper Haaretz says, Netanyahu vows “forceful” retaliation if Israel determines that Syria will attack or moves to attack the Jewish State – though Israel has nukes “forceful” is not thought to mean their use, however, other commentators say while the probability of their “use is low it is not zero.”.

Reports from Iran’s news agency FARS said that unnamed Syrian military sources have promised that if the West attacks Syria, Tel Aviv would be targeted, “Israel will also be set on fire!”. What is also generally believed is that Assad and Hezbollah have 100,000 rockets and missiles to rain down upon Israel.

Israel has called up its reservists in preparation for war.

Israeli citizens have lined up at distribution centers to receive gas masks.

Obama has used Turkey as a CIA operations base in which to train and supply anti-Assad forces in Syria. Turkey expects retaliation from Syria. Both have already exchanged fire earlier. Turkey’s shared border with Syria extends 560 miles and shelters ½ million anti-Assad refugees. Reuters news service reports that Turkey has mobilized specialized equipment and personnel to deal with chemical attacks to its borders with Syria. A spokesman for Turkey’s Disaster and Emergency Management Directorate said, "We have increased our measures significantly since last week, to be prepared particularly in case of a chemical attack,". 

Iran has stepped forward for the first time, according to the Wall Street Journal, with its own threat, "Any attack on Syria would burn down Israel," Iranian news media reported Maj. Gen. Hassan Firouzabadi, chief of staff of Iran's armed forces, as saying.

And then of course there are Syria’s other allies – Putin’s Russia, and China.

Russian diplomats have continually warned against military intervention by western powers throughout the crisis saying that the consequences of not doing so would be “dire”. The Times of India reports that Russia has dispatched some of its naval forces to the eastern Mediterranean to neutralize the US Naval presence already there.

China has stepped up its warning against military action saying the consequences would be “catastrophic”. The official Chinese news agency, Xinhua, adds that the US and its allies were rushing to conclusions about who may have used chemical weapons in Syria before UN inspectors had completed their investigation.  Both China and Russia are expected to “veto” any UN Security Council measures against Syria.

UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon said the inspectors could finish and leave as early as this Saturday, and implored “Let Peace have a chance”.

In the background, meanwhile, Obama had his administration officials puff up the prospects of US retaliation while he himself has remained relatively silent.

On Saturday and Sunday, U.S. officials leaked plans to media to fire cruise missiles at Syrian military installations as a warning to the Syrian government not to use its chemical weapons stockpiles again.

"Damnit Assad --- We really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really mean it this time !!"

And on Sunday, Sen. Bob Corker, who was briefed by administration officials twice over the weekend, said a U.S. "response is imminent" in Syria. "I think we will respond in a surgical way," he said. On Monday, Secretary of State John Kerry appeared to lay groundwork for a 3 day U.S. military incursion as early as today.

The architect of Obama’s planned military adventure, HOWEVER, has grave misgivings about it all:

Chris Harmer, a senior naval analyst at the Institute for the Study of War,  says too much faith is being put into the outcome of surgical strikes on Assad's forces with little discussion of what wider goals such attacks are supposed to achieve.

"Tactical actions in the absence of strategic objectives is usually pointless and often counterproductive. I never intended my analysis of a cruise missile strike option to be advocacy even though some people took it as that."

A polite way of saying that the Obama Administration doesn’t know what the fuck it’s doing.

But that’s never been an obstacle to Obama before – he’s always been content to make wrong-headed political decisions when the circumstances required thoughtful, comprehensive strategic ones.

"I made it clear that this is a low cost option”, Harmer said,  “but the broader issue is that low cost options don't do any good unless they are tied to strategic priorities and objectives." . He added, "Any ship officer can launch 30 or 40 Tomahawks. It's not difficult. The difficulty is explaining to strategic planners how this advances U.S. interests." 

"Punitive action is the dumbest of all actions," he said. "The Assad regime has shown an incredible capacity to endure pain and I don't think we have the stomach to deploy enough punitive action that would serve as a deterrent."

He also doubted the effectiveness of taking out Assad's chemical weapons capabilities. "If we start picking off chemical weapons targets in Syria, the logical response is if any weapons are left in the warehouses, he's going to start dispersing them among his forces if he hasn't already," he continued. "So you're too late to the fight."

Now in the face of opposition from America’s adversaries and from criticism at home by moving without Congressional authority or the UN support, which support Obama’s has previously said was essential in matters of international security;  he has spoken out and said in essence “Hey, wait a minute, that’s all premature, no decision has been reached as yet.”

It’s clear no one was speaking on any of this previously without Obama’s stamp of approval. Wonder how Kerry and Corker feel about another politically motivated reversal from Obama right about now and their credibility ?

If Obama decides to move ahead with military action there are as yet other deficiencies in that Obama expects Syria’s Assad and his allies will get the nuances of the message Obama wants to convey.

This is an attack to show my displeasure with you for having ignored my threats not because I’m trying to topple you from power (even though both of us know I really am trying to do that through proxies or why else would I be supporting secretly from Turkey the CIA operations to arm and train the opposition forces fighting against your regime ?).

"We are not focused on taking action to determine the outcome of the civil war," said a senior Obama administration official. "We intend to send a message to the world that this is not business as usual."

In other words, "hey, these are just cruise missiles to punish you, please don’t mistake them for cruise missiles to remove you from power.".

Jay Carney, spokesman for Obama, has said there must be a negotiated settlement with Assad to end Syria’s civil war; even though the recent gas attack makes that more unobtainable.

So …. Let me get this straight. According to the Obama administration Assad and his government are barbaric. They have committed a crime against humanity by deploying gas weapons against their own people.  However, Assad must remain in power in order for the Obama administration to negotiate a settlement to end Syria's civil conflict. But THEN Assad must go. Assad will understand the nuances of the Obama message in a military attack. And THEN Assad will enter into negotiations in which he will THEN surrender himself up to an international tribunal in the Hague to be tried as a war criminal. And because it was just a surgical strike there will be no unmanageable repercussions anywhere. Is that about it?

What I think will fly back to the White House in turn through diplomatic channels, of course, will be something in Arabic that sounds a lot like, …… Kiss My Ass !!!

With Obama calling the shots anyone care to hazard a guess as to the odds all of this will end well for Syria and the rest of the world ?

see also:

Obama, Benghazi, Al Qaeda, CIA, Syria, Turkey, Israel, Iran and Russia ......what if ?

Obama .... Can't decide - Syria or the Congo?

Does Obama Project US Weakness Abroad ... Straight from the horse's mouth.

“Obama Bin Laden’s” gun walking scheme …. Bob Schieffer got it right ?