Putin, an experienced negotiator, senses an opportunity to disadvantage an adversary and all the while promote his own interests and public image as well.
Putin said his differences with President Obama aren't personal, or permanent -
"President Obama hasn't been elected by the American people in order to be pleasant to Russia, And your humble servant hasn't been elected by the people of Russia to be pleasant to someone either."
"We work, we argue about some issues. We are human. Sometimes one of us gets vexed. But I would like to repeat once again that global mutual interests form a good basis for finding a joint solution to our problems."
He also said Russia "doesn't exclude" supporting strikes if it can be proved that Bashar Assad's government used chemical weapons against its people.
"Putin said he felt sorry that President Obama canceled a one-on-one meeting in Moscow that was supposed to have happened before the summit. He expressed hope the two would have serious discussions about Syria and other issues in St. Petersburg."
http://www.usatoday.com/story/theoval/2013/09/04/obama-putin-russia-g-20/276136
This benevolence isn't characteristic behavior from Putin.
In other words, if it is genuine, then Putin wants something from Obama that means more to Putin than does Russia's client state, Syria and it's relationship with Assad. And he will have it.
What that is exactly remains to be revealed.
But in terms of their previous meetings and negotiations Putin has shown himself to be the "master of an empty stage". And Obama; not even rank amateur.
But for the moment imagine what Putin's support for a military strike against Syria would mean to Obama at home and around the world after the roundhouse rejection of Obama's ill advised Syrian military adventure by Great Britain, 60 % of the American public, Obama's own party and the US Congress. Putin understands how to push the Obama buttons and promote himself at the same time.
And at what cost to US interests - how far would Obama go to soothe his bruised ego and mitigate his own embarrassment ?
How very sad then the state of affairs that Obama leaves as a legacy from his incompetence in leadership, that America's president would need the support of a rival foreign power to actualize US foreign policy.
OR .... was the entire Syrian crisis a provocation courtesy of Putin to promote Russian influence throughout the Middle East by supplanting or at least seriously compromising US influence there ?
There is speculation among informed observers that the chemical weapons stockpiles under Assad's control were originally the "missing" Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD's) from Hussein's Iraq. And even, that their origins, if not technical assistance in their manufacture, came from Russia.
The 2 most influential foreign powers "at work" in Syria are both Iran and Russia.
Not widely reported is the dismay and condemnation expressed by the Iranian government over Assad's use of chemical weapons. Former Iranian president Rafsanjani condemned the attack and openly named the Assad government as the perpetrator. Current Iranian president Rouhani called on “the international community to use all its might to prevent the use of these weapons anywhere in the world, especially in Syria”
Putin on the other hand has not condemned Syria but has however offered a defense saying it's unproven that Assad used the weapons. Calling US claims to the contrary, "Utter nonsense!", though he has later claimed that he's not defending Assad but just the international norms of prohibition of the use of chemical weapons.
A little known fact about Sarin nerve gas, one of the suspected agents used by Syria, is that it is 26 times more deadly than cyanide and requires some special preparation and handling. It can not be deployed quickly without days of advance preparation. And that implies an orderly process of authorization moving down through the chain of command.
Indeed, days before the Sarin gas laden rockets were launched Israeli intelligence intercepted the communications of those orders and relayed them to the US - that is the secret intelligence the US wants to remain as classified.
The notion that lower echelons of military officers could or would issue such orders suggests that Assad isn't in command. The United States however clearly believes he is or wouldn't be insisting he remain in power in order to effect negotiations through him to end the Syrian civil war.
But could Assad act on his own without the tacit approval of the Russians and Iranians ?
The Iranians have as much acknowledged that they were blindsided by the latest Syrian deployment of chemical agents.
So what could Putin accomplish with a provocation of Obama's red line ultimatum - what is the prize in exchange for the deaths of thousands of Syrians ?
Putin's own "calculus" is that first, Obama has bumbled and fumbled his way along in trying to stay out of Syria with an incoherent and inconsistent foreign policy objective in the region, the second is, that Obama hasn't been serious about preventing Iran from developing a nuclear bomb and his third, that Obama's red lines for both Iran and Syria were nothing but shams to excuse America's inaction.
To Putin, then the next most logical course of action: the red line is targeted through provocation to show that America's threats to stop the Syrians or the Iranians were never serious.
By showing Obama is both unable and
unwilling to keep his promises, the leadership void of influence in
the Middle East is widened precipitously as a prelude to being filled by Putin. Ironically, "by helping to clear
Iran’s path to a bomb, Putin positions himself as Iran’s most powerful
ally—while paradoxically gaining greater leverage with Saudi Arabia and
the other Gulf States, who would much rather negotiate with Russia than
with Iran, their sworn enemy."
Putin saw something valuable abandoned on the world stage in the process of Obama bugging out of the Middle East, and he has moved to take
it....powerful influence in the oil-rich Middle East .... at America's expense.
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