Thursday, September 5, 2013

Will we go to war over Syria .... just sorta accidentally ?

In the 1960's there were a number of serious incidents at sea when the naval forces of the Soviet Union and the US just sort of got in each other's way. World leaders, for good reason, were fearful of accidental escalation of armed hostilities.


Those concerns led in the 70's to the signing of the Incidents At Sea Agreement between the Soviet Union and the United States. The agreement, was in essence, a series of traffic rules for naval forces of different nations when they operate in proximity to each other.


This week sea lanes in the eastern Mediterranean have become clogged with traffic from elements of the naval forces of the United States, Russia, France and Great Britain responding to the crisis in Syria.

While US ships will have to remain on station longer than expected, Obama doesn’t appear to be fazed .... “the chairman of the Joint Chiefs has informed me that we are prepared to strike whenever we choose. Moreover, the chairman has indicated to me that our capacity to execute this mission is not time-sensitive; it will be effective tomorrow, or next week, or one month from now. And I’m prepared to give that order.”



But not everyone shares Obama’s confidence.


Defense analyst Anthony Cordesman wrote Obama “has suddenly transformed a rushed call for immediate action into a waiting game where it is not clear what he or the U.S. is waiting for, and where much of the action may come to border on tragicomedy.”

On Tuesday other top Obama administration officials including Secretary of State Kerry after more than 4 hours of testimony on Capitol Hill, could not provide clear and convincing explanations of what Obama's plans and goals were with respect to Syria.

Apparently, even the Department of Defense, who are expected to execute "the plan" haven't been clued in either. When asked by Senator Corker if the resolution for war powers asked for by the Obama Administration would support the strategy of replacing the Syrian government with the "moderate" opposition forces and deter the use of chemical weapons, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Dempsey, said "I can't answer that, what we're seeking.".

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/running-transcript-senate-foreign-services-committee-hearing-on-syria/2013/09/03/35ae1048-14ca-11e3-b182-1b3bb2eb474c_story_4.html

Also on Tuesday, Reuters reports that Israel and the US fired a missile from the Mediterranean, picked up on Russian early warning radar, traveling eastward in the direction of Syria as part of an unannounced test of Israeli defenses. The US denied it had participated but Israel confirmed the test was done with US involvement. Russian diplomats were agitated that the US and Israel conducted the surprise "test" with heightened tensions in the region because of an anticipated "imminent" attack by the US upon Syria. Israel said the test was just routine but supposed that the "timing" might have been less than prudent.


On Wednesday Russia placed on high alert the Central Command Post of the General Staff, the Aerospace Defense command and the country’s intelligence agencies.

Russian Deputy Defense Minister Anatoly Antonov described the region as a “powder keg” and warned hostilities “may spread, not only to neighboring states, but to other regions of the world.”


The Russian Foreign Ministry warned “If a (US or Allied) warhead, by design or by chance, were to hit the Miniature Neutron Source Reactor (MNSR) near Damascus, the consequences could be catastrophic," adding the region would face the risk of “contamination by highly enriched uranium and it would be virtually impossible to account for nuclear material at the facility, its control and safety,” the Russian statement said.

In a separate statement today Russian President Vladimir Putin said that in the same Senate testimony as Dempsey's, Secretary of State, John Kerry, had lied and "knew he lied" when asked about Al Qaeda operating in Syria even among the so-called "moderate" opposition, supported by the US, against Assad.


 http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/09/04/us-syria-crisis-russia-congress-idUSBRE9830N620130904

Amid all this, the eastern Mediterranean sea lanes are filling up with large, dangerous vessels. It's fast becoming a very crowded place as far as maneuvering warships are concerned.


The US has already on station there 5 missile cruisers, presumably at least 1 attack submarine, a Marine troop carrier, and at least 2 other aircraft carrier groups further out in the Mediterranean for backup support. The Russians previously sent 5 ships last week and now according to reports in the Hindu Times today has another 6 warships en route which includes a guided missile cruiser. The French Navy has 1 submarine, 2 destroyers already there and an aircraft carrier ready for dispatch. The British, 2 frigates and a Helicopter carrier.

Navies are watching each other, watching the news, and watching each other watch each other....



And anxiety is building that some "incident at sea" will accidentally escalate into a shooting war beyond Syria's borders.

Gee! Imagine that .....




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